When economists were asked about the future of free market capitalism during the global economic meltdown of 2008, I repeatedly heard them responding, "We don't know. Nobody knows. We are in new history." I think the same could be said about the future of the church and conventional Christianity given the current paradigm shift we are in, as one predominant worldview is being replaced by another.
This is clearly happening in Canada. Look at the numbers:
* In 1901, 98 percent of Canadians identified themselves as Christian.
* Over the past two generations, the number of Canadians identifying themselves as non-religious has increased from 1 percent to 23 percent.
* If recent trends continue, non-Christians will outnumber Christians in Canada around 2023.
* 30 percent of Canadians do not believe in God.
* 36 percent of Canadians under the age of 25 do not believe in God.
* 84 percent of Canadians between the ages of 15 to 44 don't attend church regularly.
* Mainline Protestant Christianity is the only major religion currently in decline in Canada. This decline began in 1921. The growth of all other major religions is due primarily to a shift in immigration patterns in Canada.
* Wicca, neo- paganism and native Canadian spirituality experienced the highest percentage of growth over the last decade.
* Secular humanism - those who report themselves as agnostic, atheist, humanist, secularist or as having no religion - had the greatest numerical growth by far, increasing by 1.46 million people over the past decade. Secular humanists represent the second largest "religious group" in the country now.
These numbers indicate the spiritual paradigm shift in Canada is quickly approaching the tipping point. Canadians are converting in much greater numbers today than at any other time in our history. The difference is that they are now converting from Christianity.
One of the most striking profiles implied by these statistics is that the majority of people who are converting in Canada are:
* Between the ages of 16 and 44;
* In the process of getting a post-secondary education or already have one; and
* Moving from a Protestant faith to a secular humanist worldview.
Millions have already made this conversion, but there are even more who find themselves in transition between conventional Christianity and secular humanism. Consider this statistic: The percentage of those with a religious affiliation never attending a religious service increased from 24 percent to 41 percent in the past 20 years. This is a huge number of people, almost 10 million people.
So why is it that nearly a third of our population still shares an affinity with Christian faith, but never goes to church? I believe that, for the majority of these people, church is not the primary problem; most of them are not merely looking for new and improved churches with polished pop rock worship and more technologically advanced sermon presentations. The real problem for these folks is conventional Christianity itself.
As a result of my research and my own experience in connecting with those on the "fringe of the fold," I am convinced the majority of Christians who no longer go to church - not to mention the many more who are still attending only out of a sense of guilt, duty, loyalty, community or family pressure - still resonate with certain aspects of their Christian faith, but are finding the scientific secular humanist worldview as more credible in making sense of the world in which they live. I believe more and more Canadian Christians are not merely looking for an updated church as much as for an updated worldview that integrates their faith, education and experience of reality.
What does this mean for the church?
In my opinion, to deny, ignore or fight against this paradigm shift is futile. I don't believe this shift has surprised or angered God, or is at heart against God. I believe this movement is at its centre a genuine pursuit of truth and will, therefore, lead to greater understanding and deeper experience of God, even if it means taking two steps backward for every three steps we take forward.
I believe that what we need more than ever are eyes to see God's presence in the midst of all the change and confusion, and ears to hear what the Spirit is saying to the churches today. We also need courageous pioneers of faith to help shape this new history.
To be continued ....
[Sidebar]
I am convinced the majority of Christians who no longer go to church . . . are finding the scientific secular humanist worldview as more credible in making sense of the world in which they live.
[Author Affiliation]
Troy Watson is a Mennonite minister, resident theologian, spiritual director and a founding leader of The Quest, "a different kind of 'church' for life in the postmodern shift" in St. Catharines, Ont.
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